Long-term Optimistic about Leaders in Lithium Battery Production Chain

2019-10-21
12

       According to GGII statistics, 129000 vehicles were produced domestically in June 2019. This number has increased by 95% from the same time last year, and by 16% quarter-to quarter. Battery capacity of these vehicles totals at 6.61GWh, a 131% increase year-to-year, and 16% quarter-to-quarter. The battery companies ranking top ten in product capacity contributed 5.68GWh, or 86% of total products.

 

       There is a huge increase in implemented power battery capacity in the month of June, comparing to same time last year. The major reason is that the transition period ended at beginning of June (6/11) last year, and receded subsidy gave a substantial blow to the production of new energy vehicles during middle and end of June. However, transition period ended at the end of month (6/25) this year, and a rush for purchase before ending made a positive contribution to monthly production rate. A combination of the low base number last year with the surge purchase this year pushes the production rate increase this June higher, reaching 130%, a vast increase of 104% compared to last month. Accumulated implemented capacity from January to June have reached 30 GWh, a 93% increase year-to-year, and 8.5% higher than last month.

 

Ternary lithium battery is a major growth factor. The production of lithium iron phosphate battery for passenger vehicles has a rapid increase and CR3 reached 72.1%, with year-to-year remaining stable. Among the three companies, Contemporary Amperex Technology implemented 3.2GWh of battery capacity with a year-to-year increase of 28% and quarter-to-quarter increase of 198%. Capacity implemented in the same month reaches 48.5%, a 4.4 percent increase from last month, taking up more market share. Guoxuan High-Tech implemented 4.75GWh of cell capacity, with a slight decrease of 8% quarter-to-quarter. CR3 for ternary lithium batter reached 3.18GWh in June, a 37% increase year-to-year and 194% quarter-to-quarter. CR3 for lithium iron phosphate battery is 1.38 GWh for the same period, a decrease of 9% year-to-year and 44% quarter-to-quarter. Ternary lithium batter is the major driving force behind increase in power battery implementation, and it is speculated that both production and sell rate of passenger vehicles increased considerably in June. The major product of Guoxuan High-tech, cylindrical lithium iron phosphate battery, has reached 0.19 GWh of capacity in the month of June, a 36% increase year-to-year.

 

      After the ending of transition period 6/25, the lithium battery production chain still faces price reduction pressure. However, on the one hand, the leaders of the lithium batter have stronger bargaining power both upstream and downstream due to scale effect, on the other hand, their technological advantages enable them to achieve higher yield with lower cost and stronger resistance to price drop. Furthermore, as single owner subsidy goes further down, lithium iron phosphate battery can penetrate faster into middle- and lower-end passenger vehicles for price-sensitive customers. Due to competitive pricing, vehicles going electric is a global trend, and Europe has already set a timetable for planned petrol car exit. On a short term, domestic new energy production chain is facing pressure, but the policy support is unwavering. In 2019, “double points” policy would move into action, and new energy cars would have a strong advantage over petroleum vehicles in road access. As changing infrastructure gets into completion, new energy vehicle would become even more competitive. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology declared that it is spearheading the plan on new energy vehicle industry for the year 2021-2035, and there is hope for more policy support in industry development. Therefore, we’re optimistic about the leaders of lithium battery production chain on the long term.


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